RedwoodAI Labs (RAIL)RAIL ADAPTIVE RESILIENCE MODEL (ARM)

RAIL Parcel · Scenarios · Geocentric due diligence

Colorado River Cascade

Boundary case · interstate

Read · July 2026Indicative · pending ingest

A basin-scale priority stack: Mead and Powell storage against the 1922 Compact, cascading from campus and onsite water through CAP curtailment into WECC-SW grid stress. The screen selects one site per Compact state on greatest combined, publicly disclosed exposure to the Colorado River system — direct withdrawal, transbasin municipal dependency, hydropower coupling, or legal priority. Selection is an analytical risk screen, not a prediction of failure and not an advocacy ranking.

Authored in Colorado River Cascade Data Center Exposure Report · Updated Edition · July 2026 · RAIL Reports


Lake Mead elevation

1,044.58 ft (1 Jul 2026) · declared Shortage Condition CY2026 [1]

Lake Powell elevation

~3,524 ft (13 Jul 2026) · ~34 ft above minimum power pool (3,490 ft) · dead pool 3,370 ft [3]

WY2026 operations

Mid-Elevation Release Tier reduced 7.48 → 6.00 maf; Glen Canyon releases cut to protect a 3,525-ft target [2]

Inflow

May unregulated inflow to Powell 18% of 1991–2020 average · WY2026 forecast ~35% [2]

Governance

Interim guidelines expire 30 Sep 2026 · Interior proceeding under its own authority absent seven-state consensus [7]

Values dated to the July 2026 study of record. Subsequent basin developments land here only with a sourced update via ingest — this block is replaced whole, never edited in place.


WYCOUTNMAZNVCALees FerryAZ · Google MesaActiveCA · IVCM Imperial Valley Data CenterCriticalNV · Google Henderson Data Center 1ActiveCO · QTS Aurora-DenverWatchNM · Meta Los Lunas CampusWatchUT · Tonaquint / ValorC3 St. GeorgeNicheWY · Meta CheyenneWatchNicheWatchActiveCriticalLower BasinUpper Basin
Regional locator — member sites coloured by intensity; Compact states shaded by basin. Schematic state outlines; a locator cannot substitute for the site plates.

CRC_A_ModerateCompact

Negotiated moderation

A seven-state or Interior-brokered settlement extends graduated Lower Basin reductions and system conservation, keeping Powell above minimum power pool through most years. Direct-draw sites face higher water cost and firmer conservation obligations; transbasin sites see municipal providers tighten large-user rules.

Leading indicators

  • Post-2026 guidelines finalized with broad buy-in
  • Sustained system-conservation funding
  • Powell holding near or above 3,525 ft
  • Orderly large-user tariffs and 15-year utility contracts

CRC_B_PriorityShock

Priority-stack shock

A dry sequence forces enforcement of the priority stack. Arizona's junior CAP allocation and junior municipal claims (Cheyenne 1954–1982) are curtailed first; Glen Canyon hydropower is lost around 2027, raising WECC-SW power cost. Active and Critical direct-draw sites and Watch transbasin sites both feel it — through supply and power respectively.

Leading indicators

  • Powell crossing minimum power pool
  • Curtailment call issued
  • CAP delivery cuts
  • Cheyenne junior-right curtailment notices
  • IID rate and access litigation outcomes
  • Hoover capacity de-rates

CRC_C_FederalOverride

Federal override

Absent consensus, Interior imposes operating rules and shortage allocations under its own authority. Outcomes are more uniform but less predictable for any single operator; permitting and license-to-operate risk rises as counties and utilities enact moratoria and stricter data-center rules in parallel.

Leading indicators

  • Interior finalizes rules without full consensus
  • Expanded county and utility moratoria (Denver, Coachella, Bernalillo)
  • Mandated water-offset and reuse conditions
  • Insurability repricing in Capital Flows

Lower Basin · AZ · Under construction

Google Mesa (Redhawk)

Active

Google (Stone Applications LLC) · Direct (CAP)

USDA NAIP, acquired 2023-09-15. Center point 33.3510, -111.6395; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (address-derived facility point; not verified against official parcel geometry). Shows the campus and adjacent early works during buildout. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

A large hyperscale campus with disclosed, direct Colorado River dependency — roughly half its water sourced from the river via CAP — in the second-largest US data-center water market, under extreme Phoenix heat and a declared river shortage. Any CAP water is Arizona's junior Lower Basin allocation, first cut in shortage.

Weather / Climate · HighEnergy / Power · ModerateWater / Geology · High

Announced ~150 MW is a directory figure, not utility-energized capacity. Runners-up: Meta Mesa; Microsoft Goodyear (transitioning to zero-water).

Lower Basin · CA · Proposed · litigated

IVCM Imperial Valley Data Center

Critical

Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing LLC · Direct (IID, litigated)

USDA NAIP, acquired 2022-05-30. Center point 32.8600, -115.5300; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (discovery-grade facility point; not verified against official parcel source). Pre-construction farmland; no data-center structures present. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

A 330 MW AI campus actively litigating for direct Colorado River water in the basin's most senior-rights district, amid dueling lawsuits and an emergency-pause landscape. IID is the only fresh-water source in the Imperial Valley; the developer's zero-impact-via-fallowing argument is an operator claim, not a regulator finding.

Weather / Climate · HighEnergy / Power · ModerateWater / Geology · High

Proposed and litigated; Google anchor-tenant linkage unconfirmed; fallowing-offset is an operator claim, not a regulator finding. Runner-up: Coachella Valley Technology Campus (larger, but under moratorium with a terminated development agreement).

Lower Basin · NV · Operational (opened 2020)

Google Henderson Data Center 1

Active

Google (Jasmine Development LLC) · Direct (Lake Mead)

USDA NAIP, acquired 2022-06-10. Center point 36.0297, -114.9800; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (address-derived facility point; not verified against official parcel geometry). Developed urban context near Warm Springs Rd. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

The largest single Southern Nevada data-center consumer of Colorado River water, drawing consumptively from Lake Mead in a region ~90% river-dependent during a declared shortage. Its consumption reflects legacy evaporative design that would not be permitted new today.

Weather / Climate · HighEnergy / Power · ModerateWater / Geology · High

Legacy design; would not be permitted new under the 2024 evaporative-cooling ban. No Southern Nevada runner-up at this scale (Storey County is Truckee-basin).

Upper Basin · CO · Under construction

QTS Aurora-Denver

Watch

QTS Realty Trust · Transbasin + grid

USDA NAIP, acquired 2023-09-25. Center point 39.7600, -104.6800; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (discovery-grade facility point; not verified against official parcel source). Near-greenfield parcel south of Denver International Airport. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

Colorado's largest data center, served by a municipal supply about half sourced from Colorado River transbasin diversions, with heavy grid coupling and an active air-permit contest — but very low direct water use (closed-loop, ~2,400 gal/day).

Weather / Climate · ModerateEnergy / Power · HighWater / Geology · Moderate

Colorado River exposure is indirect (imported supply + grid), justifying Watch not Active. Runners-up: Raeden Colorado Springs; CoreSite Denver.

Roster site · Adaptive Resilience Graph →

Upper Basin · NM · Operational (Phase 3 under construction)

Meta Los Lunas Campus

Watch

Meta Platforms · Transbasin (San Juan–Chama)

USDA NAIP, acquired 2022-06-04. Center point 34.8149, -106.7531; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (discovery-grade facility point; not verified against official parcel source). Established campus on the western bank of the Rio Grande. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

New Mexico's dominant hyperscale campus on the drought-stressed Rio Grande, served by a municipal portfolio that includes a small San Juan–Chama (Colorado River tributary) transbasin allocation. The Colorado River share is small in volume, so exposure is indirect.

Weather / Climate · ModerateEnergy / Power · ModerateWater / Geology · Moderate

Primary supply is local groundwater / Rio Grande; the San Juan–Chama share is small in volume (Watch). Bernalillo County adopted stricter data-center rules Feb 2026.

Upper Basin · UT · Active / operational (recommissioning for AI)

Tonaquint / ValorC3 St. George

Niche

ValorC3 / Tonaquint Data Centers · In-basin tributary

USDA NAIP, acquired 2021-09-05. Center point 37.0750, -113.6060; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (discovery-grade facility point; not verified against official parcel source). St. George urban context; small facility not individually resolvable. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

A modest but genuinely in-basin data center whose municipal supply depends on the Colorado River system (Virgin and Santa Clara rivers) in one of the fastest-growing, most water-stressed US counties. Utah's largest campuses sit outside the Colorado River basin, so this in-basin site is small.

Weather / Climate · ModerateEnergy / Power · LowWater / Geology · Moderate

In-basin but small (Niche); Utah's largest campuses are outside the Colorado River basin (Great Salt Lake). Grand County (Moab) discourages Colorado-River-dependent data centers.

Upper Basin · WY · Under construction (opens 2027)

Meta Cheyenne (Project Cosmo)

Watch

Meta Platforms · Transbasin (Little Snake)

USDA NAIP, acquired 2022-06-21. Center point 41.0779, -104.8255; site context, point location, not parcel boundary (discovery-grade facility point; not verified against official parcel source). Pre-construction high-plains parcel; announced July 2024, so no structures visible. Source: Planetary Computer STAC item · USDA FPAC-BC Geospatial Enterprise Operations. Public-domain USDA NAIP.

Wyoming's largest data center, sited in a city whose municipal supply is ~70% Colorado River water on junior priority (1954–1982) with 2028 curtailment risk — the strongest legal/priority Colorado River exposure in the study — but with low direct on-site water use.

Weather / Climate · LowEnergy / Power · ModerateWater / Geology · Moderate

Direct on-site use is low; exposure is via municipal supply and legal curtailment risk (Watch). Runner-up: Microsoft Cheyenne (older, evaporative, expanding).


  1. 1. USBR Lake Mead end-of-month elevations www.usbr.gov
  2. 2. Reclamation June 2026 24-Month Study (via Coyote Gulch) coyotegulch.blog
  3. 3. ABC News — Lake Powell critically low abcnews.com
  4. 7. Western Water — Interior moves forward on Colorado River rules www.western-water.com
  5. 9. DataCenterDynamics — Mesa data center despite water concerns www.datacenterdynamics.com
  6. 10. APM Research Lab — data centers & resources www.apmresearchlab.org
  7. 11. KPBS — Imperial Valley developer sues IID for river water www.kpbs.org
  8. 12. WyoFile — municipal water most vulnerable wyofile.com
  9. 13. DCD — Google breaks ground on Mesa campus www.datacenterdynamics.com
  10. 14. DCD — 330MW Google-linked data center proposed in Southern California www.datacenterdynamics.com
  11. 15. KPBS — Imperial County supervisors clear path amid opposition www.kpbs.org
  12. 17. LVRJ — Southern Nevada's thirstiest data center www.reviewjournal.com
  13. 18. Las Vegas Valley Water District — where your water comes from www.lvvwd.com
  14. 19. LVRJ — Southern Nevada data centers 2024 water use www.reviewjournal.com
  15. 20. CPR — QTS Aurora data center diesel generators www.cpr.org
  16. 21. DataCentersExposed — QTS Aurora-Denver datacenterexposed.com
  17. 22. Larimer County — transbasin water education www.larimer.gov
  18. 23. MMCG Invest — Meta's $3.3B Los Lunas bet www.mmcginvest.com
  19. 24. Wikipedia — San Juan–Chama Project en.wikipedia.org
  20. 25. Village of Los Lunas — note from the Mayor on water rights www.loslunasnm.gov
  21. 26. ValorC3 / DataCenterMap — Tonaquint St. George specs www.datacentermap.com
  22. 27. Fox13 — Washington County $1.3B water project www.fox13now.com
  23. 28. KSNV — St. George looking for ways to handle drought news3lv.com
  24. 29. Cowboy State Daily — Meta announces $800M Cheyenne data center cowboystatedaily.com
  25. 30. Cowboy State Daily — Cheyenne farmers worry over data center water cowboystatedaily.com
  26. 32. Reuters — desert storm: can data centers slake their thirst www.reuters.com
  27. 34. Business Insider — IVCM lawsuit & fallowing offset claim www.businessinsider.com
  28. 35. SFGATE — Nevada data centers electricity share www.sfgate.com
  29. 36. Colorado Sun — Denver data center controversy coloradosun.com
  30. 45. City Desk ABQ — Bernalillo County data center restrictions citydesk.org
  31. 46. Grand County (UT) staff report on data centers www.utah.gov
  32. 47. Microsoft — intent to expand Cheyenne datacenter operations news.microsoft.com